Hundreds of thousands of new jobs will be created by 2030 as a result of technological advancements, according to a forecast by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Despite this, the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) predicts that automation will force many people out of work shortly.
BCG’s economic experts conducted a large amount of modeling to predict how labor supply and demand may evolve over the coming decade. Specifically, they discovered that job losses in Germany, Australia, and the United States would be more than offset by job gains in those countries. They are not always interested in hiring persons who have recently lost their employment. This is a significant development.
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According to the researchers, even while it may appear that taking away 10 million jobs and replacing them with the same number of new positions does not have a significant impact on the economy, it does have a significant impact on the economy, both nationally and for the people who lose their jobs.
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Because there are significant supply-demand mismatches across job types and locations, it is vital to look at more than just the total net surplus or shortfall. As a result, “perfect exchangeability” is not attainable because not all of the increased capacity in the workforce can be utilized to fulfill new or expanding demands.
The people at BCG looked into a wide range of factors that could impact a country’s labor force in 2030. In this study, students who had recently graduated from college and those who were planning to relocate were taken into consideration (retirement and mortality rates).
Several possible scenarios were used to test the model, with GDP growth and technology adoption rates being used as inputs to see which ones worked best. In other words, as a country develops, it is more probable that new jobs will be created. As more people utilize technology, certain occupations may be lost because machines can perform them. Still, new jobs may also be created due to the increased use of technology.
Each of the three countries was projected to have a labor shortage under the middle scenario, based on average GDP growth and a medium rate of technological adoption. German unemployment will reach three million people by 2030, whereas Australia’s unemployment will reach one million people by the same year. More than 17 million jobs in the United States may go unfilled.
A large number of employees will be eliminated simultaneously as a result of automation. It is estimated that approximately 11 million additional workers will be added in the United States alone. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, production workers in Germany are the most likely to be displaced by automation, and sales and associated occupations in Australia are the most likely to be displaced by job surpluses. Jobs in administrative support, food preparation and service, and other related fields are the ones that are most likely to be impacted.
Therefore, there will be a significant disparity between the number of vacant positions and the number of positions that will be required. In particular, computer-based firms and professions in the STEM sectors are affected by this trend (science, technology, engineering, and math). Employment in the healthcare, social service, and education sectors are expected to be in high demand in the future, and they will all be in high demand in the future.